上海市近年来大气环境质量变化趋势分析

为了解上海市大气环境的状况,为进一步制定改善上海市大气环境质量的具体措施提出相关的参考建议,本文在查阅大量文献资料基础上,总结了上海市自2000年至2007年共8年大气环境质量现状分析,统计分析了主要污染物的变化特征,通过对相关环保措施、政府政策等方面资料的引用和分析,讨论了上海市大气环境质量变化的影响因素。分析结果表明:上海市连续三轮的"环保三年行动计划"的实施使上海市大气环境质量逐渐好转,大气污染情况逐步减轻,但由于产业结构调整带来的大气环境压力以及社会快速发展的压力,使得上海市治理大气环境污染的任务仍然艰巨。酸雨已经成为上海市大气环境的突出重要问题。     

城域突发事故灾害发生机理探索

城域突发事故灾害发生机理涉及事故灾害致因、演化过程、发展规律3个主要方面;从典型事故致因理论入手,探索城域突发事故灾害致因有本质原因、基础原因和直接原因;事故致因要素之间的综合作用是城域突发事故灾害发生机理研究的关键,可考虑建立与之对应的数学模型,运用突变理论,对演化过程进行分析,指出城域突发事故灾害演化是一个流变-突变过程,并满足尖点突变模型,引发因素和控制因素两个参数决定事故状态的变化;总结城域突发事故灾害的发展规律,指出城域突发事故灾害沿链条传递,并呈现一定周期性,研究成果可为事故灾害的预防与控制提供借鉴。     

基于复杂系统的民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究

民族地区非常规突发事件属罕见非常规突发事件,是典型的复杂系统。传统的应急管理模式不能适应这类具有非线性复杂系统特征的罕见非常规突发事件的应急管理需求。因此,应该将民族地区的各类民族因素和社会特征作为民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究的基础变量,并进行复杂性分析,进而构建民族地区非常规突发事件演化规律的可视化仿真模型,然后在PeMS(平行应急管理系统)的基础上实现对该类突发事件应急管理机制的评估、反馈与改进。     

Recent levels of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in sediments of the sewer system in Hanoi, Vietnam

The occurrence, temporal trend, sources and toxicity of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides were investigated in sediment samples from the sewer system of Hanoi City, including the rivers Nhue, To Lich, Lu, Set, Kim Nguu and the Yen So Lake. In general, the concentrations of the pollutants followed the order DDTs > PCBs > HCHs (β-HCH) > HCB. However, the pollution pattern was different for the DDTs and PCBs when the sampling locations were individually evaluated. The concentrations of the DDTs, PCBs, HCHs, and HCB ranged from 4.4 to 1100, 1.3 to 384, <0.2 to 36 and <0.2 to 22 ng/g d.w., respectively. These levels are higher than at any other location in Vietnam. Compared to measurements from 1997, the DDTs, PCBs, β-HCH and HCB levels show an increasing trend with DDT/DDE ratios, indicating very recent inputs into the environment although these persistent compounds are banned in Vietnam since 1995.     

Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China1

Wang, Jinxia, Jikun Huang, Lijuan Zhang, Qiuqiong Huang, and Scott Rozelle, 2010. Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 665-685. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00439.x Abstract: In recent years China has attempted to reform water management by decentralizing water management responsibilities. The overall goal of our paper is to better understand the emergence of water user associations (WUAs) in China and assess if they are adhering to the practices spelled out by the Five Principles, a set of recommended practices that are supposed to lead to successful WUA operation. Using four sets of different types of villages to examine implementation and performance, we find that World Bank-supported WUA villages (“Bank villages”) can be thought of as operating mostly according to the Five Principles. For example, the Bank villages were endowed with a more reliable water supply; were set up and were operating with a relatively high degree of farmer participation; and leaders were more consultative and the process more formal. When WUAs are run according to the Five Principals, we show that WUAs increase water use efficiency. The study also provides evidence that there is a perception in the Bank villages that water management is improving in general and that there is less conflict both within the village and among villages. Perhaps more importantly, we find that the Bank’s effort to promote WUAs extended beyond their own project villages. The openness, consultative nature, and transparency found in the Bank WUAs are also found (albeit at a somewhat lower level) in the non-Bank WUA villages.     

生物入侵中入侵种与土著种的相互作用

在全球范围内，生物入侵已经成为一个非常严重的环境问题，并产生了生态问题和经济问题。本文阐述了生物入侵中入侵种自身的变化及对土著种的影响，并讨论了生物入侵过程中入侵种与土著种的快速进化问题。     

我国城乡环保一体化的制度建构:理念、原则与路径

近年来,我国"城市环境趋向好转,农村环境不断恶化"这种城乡环境二元趋势的凸现,提出了城乡环保一体化的客观要求."城市中心主义"环境法制以及我国农民实质自由的严重匮乏是我国产生城乡环境二元趋势的根本原因.一些地方所采取的仅仅局限于环保领域的城乡环保一体化措施,并不能从根本上扭转城乡环境二元趋势.城乡环保一体化实践需要以更为全面的制度建构为基础.城乡环保一体化的制度建构应树立理性、人本、自由等基本理念,应坚持整体推进、科学建构、多元参与等基本原则.城乡环保一体化的制度建构路径,首先是消除对农民的各种制度性歧视,实现城乡居民的权利平等;其次,在推动地方民主与法治建设,推进司法体制改革、建立司法审查制度的基础上,健全与完善农民权利实现的保障机制,保证农民的各项权利最终成为"可实际行使"的权利.最后,还要建立适应农村环境保护要求的环境法制.     

近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料，采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势，并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验，用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标，对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验，采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致，年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关；饶河流域强降水事件较多，降水强度大，赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀，强降水事件较少；（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势，20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大；（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界，之前呈波动上升趋势，之后呈波动下降趋势，2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少；（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变；（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧，旱涝灾害风险增加。     

Don’t Fight the Site: Three Geomorphic Considerations in Catchment-Scale River Rehabilitation Planning

Three geomorphic considerations that underpin the design and implementation of realistic and strategic river conservation and rehabilitation programs that work with the nature are outlined. First, the importance of appreciating the inherent diversity of river forms and processes is discussed. Second, river dynamics are appraised, framing the contemporary behavioral regime of a reach in relation to system evolution to explain changes to river character and behavior over time. Third, the trajectory of a reach is framed in relation to downstream patterns of river types, analyzing landscape connectivity at the catchment scale to interpret geomorphic river recovery potential. The application of these principles is demonstrated using extensive catchment-scale analyses of geomorphic river responses to human disturbance in the Bega and Upper Hunter catchments in southeastern Australia. Differing implications for reach- and catchment-scale rehabilitation planning prompt the imperative that management practices work with nature rather than strive to ‘fight the site.’     

QSPR prediction of chromatographic retention times of pesticides: Partition and fractal indices

The high‐performance liquid‐chromatographic retentions of red‐wine pesticide residues are modeled by structure–property relationships. The effect of different types of features is analyzed: geometric, lipophilic, etc. The properties are fractal dimensions, partition coefficient, etc., in linear and nonlinear correlation models. Biological plastic evolution is an evolutionary perspective conjugating the effect of acquired characters and relations that emerge among the principles of evolutionary indeterminacy, morphological determination and natural selection. It is applied to design the co‐ordination index that is used to characterize pesticide retentions. The parameters used to calculate the co‐ordination index are the molar formation enthalpy, molecular weight and surface area. The morphological and co‐ordination indices barely improve the correlations. The fractal dimension averaged for non?buried atoms, partition coefficient, etc. distinguishes the pesticide molecular structures. The structural and constituent classification is based on nonplanarity, and the number of cycles, and O, S, N and Cl atoms. Different behavior depends on the number of cycles.